Looking into August, all signs were pointing toFantastic Fourunderwhelming significantly and failing to reach the heights of its predecessors. Still, with the Marvel brand becoming overwhelmingly popular, I thought it should at least carry it past the gross of notorious comic book bombGreen Lantern. I was wrong.Fantastic Fournow sits at the lowest of Marvel adaptations right next toGhost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance(which was made for a fraction of the budget ofFantastic Four).
Speaking of wrong,Straight Outta Comptonproved to be a much bigger hit than was originally projected, and a built-in audience could not saveSinister 2from awful reviews.
Last year had thelowest-grossing September in six years. Given the prevalence of two high-profile sequels and several appealing options for adults, this month should avoid continuance of that trend.
Films about aging friends reuniting for an adventure, such asThe Bucket ListandLast Vegas, have seen some success in recent years. WhileRobert RedfordandNick Nolteare both well-liked actors, they do not share the same drawing power asJack Nicholson,Morgan Freeman, orMichael Douglas, and while the Appalachian Trail is a scenic setting, it lacks the excitement of somewhere like Las Vegas.
That’s not to say that hiking films have all been duds at the box office. Last year’sWildended up being very lucrative for Fox Searchlight, and the film received two Oscar nominations. WhileA Walk in the Woodsis also based on a best-selling novel,Wildwas released during the height of awards season and received a great deal of critical praise.A Walk in the Woodshas received mixed reviews so far (currently at a 45% on Rotten Tomatoes), which doesn’t inspire confidence that the film will have great legs. Given that the film will likely not have a high screen count, this should open low and disappear quickly from theaters.
The Transporter Refueled (September 4th – EuraCorp)
The originalTransporterarrived in 2002 and sawJason Stathamin his first starring role in an action film. Two sequels followed, the latter of which had the highest returns of the trilogy with a worldwide gross of $108.9 on a $30 million budget. While this is a fine result, the third film grossed significantly less in the United States thanTransporter 2, signifying that the franchise may have run out of gas.
Continuing August’s trend of sequels/reboots that no one asked for (Fantastic Four,Hitman: Agent 47),The Transporter Refueledarrives seven years after the previous installment.Refueledwas announced in 2013 as part of a new trilogy ofTransporterfilms with a new lead (Ed Skrein). Unless this film has gigantic foreign returns, it’s hard to imagine the sequels coming to fruition. The trailers for the most part makeRefueledlook like a total retread of the original films (fistfights in parking garages, kidnapping, awful jokes, etc.). Additionally, Ed Skrein looks like a C-level Jason Statham and doesn’t appear to bring anything new to the role. A good target forRefueledis last Labor Day’s disappointmentThe November Man.November Manat least hadPierce Brosnanin the titular role, and whileRefueleddoes carry a softer PG-13 rating, it will likely still end up on the low end of Labor Day releases.
The Visit (September 11th - Universal Pictures)
PoorM. Night Shyamalan. At one point proclaimed the nextSteven Spielberg, M. Night’s name has been dragged through the mud for the last decade and he has not had a real box office success since 2004’sThe Village. M. Night’s last film,After Earth, flopped with just $60.5 million against a $130 million budget (though overseas it performed much better).
The Visitsees the writer/director/producer returning to his horror roots and working on a much lower budget than he had become accustomed to. While the film’s trailer is generating some interest and definitely has some creepy undertones, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to do much in the way of reviving Shyamalan’s career. The found footage genre at this point seems to be on its last legs (as evidenced by this year’sThe GallowsandProject Almanac), and those seeking thrills this weekend will most likely be checking outThe Perfect Guy. Early word after initial screenings is positive, butThe Visitstill looks doomed to end up on the lower end of found footage horror films.
The Perfect Guy (September 11th – Sony / Screen Gems)
After quite a few disappointments this year (Pixels,Chappie,Aloha), Sony finally looks like it has a modest hit on its hands withThe Perfect Guy. Sony’s film production company Screen Gems has had an excellent track record at releasing thrillers aimed at African-American audiences (Obsessed,No Good Deed), andThe Perfect Guylooks to fit nicely into this wheelhouse.
No Good Deedwas released almost exactly one year ago to dismal reviews but opened to a strong $24.2 million on its way to a final gross of $52.5 million. Judging from the trailer,The Perfect Guylooks quite generic and may end up sharing similar critical reception. However, reaching the box office heights ofNo Good Deeddefinitely seems within reach.
90 Minutes in Heaven (September 11th – Samuel Goldwyn)
Based on the novel of the same name,90 Minutes in Heavenis one of two faith-based films being released this month (see below for analysis ofCaptive). The book was hugely popular when it was released in 2004 and has continued to sell well over the last decade.
Samuel Goldwyn scored a huge hit in 2008 with fellow Christian themed filmFireproof, which received a limited release and grossed $33.4 million on a $500,000 budget. Since then, the distributor has released other faith-based films with much less success (To Save A Life,Home Run), but given the popularity of the book,90 Minutes in Heavenshould turn a nice profit for Samuel Goldwyn.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials (September 18th – 20th Century Fox)
The Maze Runnerbecame a surprise hit almost exactly one year ago and opened to $32.5 million on its way to a $102.4 million gross (with another $238 million overseas).The Scorch Trialsseems to pick up right whereThe Maze Runnerleft off. While the new film takes us out of the titular maze, all of the principal characters/actors have returned, and the new “Scorch” world appropriately raises the stakes for Thomas and his crew.
One factor that does cause slight concern forThe Scorch Trial’s performance is fellow young-adult sequelThe Divergent Series: Insurgent, which was released earlier this year.Insurgentwas released almost exactly one year afterDivergentand had a decent opening weekend, but burned out quickly and ended up grossing $20 million less domestically than its predecessor. In addition,Insurgentfaced tough competition for action audiences two weeks later whenFurious 7was released, andThe Scorch TrialshasThe Martianto deal with in the same amount of time (thoughMartianwill likely skew a bit older). While these similarities do not by any means guarantee thatThe Scorch Trialswill follow the same pattern, it does show that sequels to well-received young adult adaptations are by no means invincible.
There are a few factors that indicateThe Scorch Trialswill not share a similar drop off. September generally is a much less competitive month than March, andThe Maze Runnerhad much more positive critical reception thanDivergent(Rotten Tomatoes scores of 63% vs. 40%). Given that the books are still selling well,The Scorch Trialswill likely mark a slight improvement over its predecessor.
Black Mass (September 18th – Warner Bros.)
Late September / early October has become a go-to period for studios to release crime films that also serve as awards hopefuls (Mystic River,Gone Girl,The Departed). Warner Bros. has slatedBlack Masswith the hopes of achieving similar success.
Johnny Depp’sbrand has fallen off significantly in recent years. Not countingInto The Woods,in which he had a small supporting role, Depp has had a string of 5 flops in a row (Mortdecai,Transcendence,The Lone Ranger,Dark Shadows,The Rum Diary). Fortunately for Depp, Black Mass looks much more appealing than all 5 of those films, has an incredibly strong supporting cast, and carries the added benefit of being based on the true story of infamous gangster James “Whitey” Bulger. Depp’s performance as the aforementioned gangster has been heavily publicized and is already generating Oscar buzz.
Official reviews have not yet been released, but early screenings have been met with positive reception.Black Massinvokes memories of past September dark crime dramas such asPrisonersandThe Town. Both of those films were released mid-September and also featured impressive casts. IfBlack Massis as good as early word suggests, it will likely end up closer toThe Town’s $92.1 million gross, if not higher.
Captive (September 18th – Paramount)
Captiveis based on a true story and non-fiction book in which a criminal breaks out of a courthouse and holds a newly widowed mother hostage.David Oyelowo’sstardom has risen significantly thanks to his acclaimed performance inSelma, andKate Marahas also become more popular due toHouse of Cards(we can forgive her forFantastic Four).
Despite the strong cast,Captivefaces a bit of an uphill battle. It looks significantly darker than90 Minutes in Heaven, which may turn off some viewers. Additionally, 2015 has been a rough year for faith-based films.Do You Believe?,Little Boy, andFaith of our Fathersall grossed less than $13 million, and had per-screen averages of less than $3,000 (Fireproofby comparison had a per-screen average of $8,148). Also, if90 Minutes in Heavenover performs the weekend before, it may steal audiences fromCaptive.Do You Believe?ended up with $12.9 million, which is a good target forCaptive.
Everest (September 18th - Universal)
Everestis based on the novelLeft for Deadand the 1996 Mount Everest disaster, in which 12 people died trying to reach/return from the legendary summit. The trailers have put the striking visuals of Mt. Everest and the storm that hit the climbers front and center. In addition, they have illustrated the main character’s communication during the climb with his pregnant wife waiting for him at home, a strategy that worked incredibly well for fellow true story dramaAmerican Sniper. It also doesn’t hurt that the film has an appealing cast, withJason ClarkeandJosh Brolinleading along with support fromJake GyllenhaalandKeira Knightley.
Universal is taking aMission: Impossible – Ghost Protocolapproach with their release, with an initial week of exclusively IMAX screenings before its wide expansion. This approach may very well work in its favor, as it is the type of film that is perfect for IMAX theaters and is aimed at older audiences that can build well off positive word-of-mouth.
Regardless of the critical reception upon its release, it is highly unlikely thatEverestwill be reaching the box office heights of past weather-related disaster films such asThe Perfect StormandThe Day After Tomorrow. Still, it should at the very least be reaching the gross of fellow mountain climbing filmVertical Limit, which was released fifteen years ago to a final tally of $69.2 million.
The Green Inferno (September 25th – High Top Releasing)
The long delayed release ofEli Roth’s latest film is finally here. Open Road Films originally scheduledThe Green Infernofor release last September, but financial difficulties with production company Worldview Entertainment shelved the film indefinitely. The trailers have done a great job of illustrating the premise of the film and are undeniably creepy, and there is something incredibly eerie about the idea of a community in the rainforest torturing and murdering a group of environmentalists that traveled there to protect said community.
However,The Green Infernowill likely only appeal to a small niche market consisting of die-hard Roth fanatics and what’s left of the horror torture fan base (a genre also fondly referred to as torture porn). Torture porn has died off significantly since theHostelandSawseries ended five years ago, and as evidenced by the underperformance ofHostel: Part II, Roth’s brand is far from invincible. This should end up right around the lower end of the torture porn films, and would be lucky to reach the box office heights of Roth’s directorial debut,Cabin Fever($21.1 million).
