2016 might be the most fun year yet for the Primetime Emmy Awards, because shockingly the nominations got so much right. Never before could I have imagined one Emmy category, let alone multiple, where I would be fine with just about anyone in it taking home the trophy. There were snubs, of course, there always are (Rhea SeehornforBetter Call SaulandPatrick WilsonforFargo, everything related toRectify). But there were also some unexpected triumphs, likeLouie Anderson’s nomination forBasketsandConstance Zimmerbeing recognized forUnREAL.Downton Abbeymay still be taking up space for better, more innovative shows, but there’s a very strong likelihood that, to balance that out,Mr. Robotwill sweep its categories.
One of the most interesting aspects of this year’s nominations, too, are the way in which Limited Series have been separated out from Movies, leaving the latter category looking a little paltry, while FX competes with itself over two outstanding shows:FargoandThe People v. O.J. Simpson. And yet there is AMC with its international co-productionThe Night Manager, which in years past might have mopped the floor with opponents. Things are hardly so simple now in the land of Peak TV.
More than any other year in recent memory, this year’s nominations seem to reflect what wasactually greaton television. Not all of it, but enough to be satisfying. Below you’ll find my picks for who or what should win (usually my personal favorite), what will win, and the dark horse for each category. Just keep in mind that The Emmys can occasionally be surprising in ways we can never predict. So how will it thrill / disappoint us this year I wonder?
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Ellie Kemper,Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfus,Veep
Laurie Metcalf,Getting On
Tracee Ellis Ross,Black-ish
Amy Schumer,Inside Amy Schumer
Lily Tomlin,Grace and Frankie
Who Should Win:Julia Louis-Dreyfus,Veep
Who Will Win:Julia Louis-Dreyfus,Veep
Dark Horse:Amy Schumer,Inside Amy Schumer
While I usually like to see a shake-up from year to year with Emmy winners, I really can’t deny that Louis-Dreyfus is consistently outstanding onVeep, and may never more so than in this past year. In the episode where Selina’s mother passes away, Louis-Dreyfus walked an incredibly fine line between being funny and macabre, teetering even on the edge of a darkness that would have been hard for the show to come back from. But she pulled it off, and in a few deeply affecting moments actually managed to convey Selina’s true, deeply buried emotions. It was supreme work, and just one example of her mastery as this character. To me there will be no other choice.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson,Black-ish
Aziz Ansari,Master of None
Will Forte,The Last Man on Earth
William H. Macy,Shameless
Thomas Middleditch,Silicon Valley
Jeffrey Tambor,Transparent
Who Should Win:Jeffrey Tambor,Transparent
Who Will Win:Jeffrey Tambor,Transparent
Dark Horse:Anthony Anderson,Black-ish
Tambor had another outstanding season withTransparent, and took home the award last year. Emmy voters tend to like consistency, which mostly likely will keep him in the lead spot. There’s a strong case to be made for each of these actors — including Forte, who somehow spent half the season with just half a beard and head of hair, which is true dedication — but I think the most underrated is probably Anderson forblack-ish. Anderson is always good, but he really brings it home with his physical comedy on this show, and his timing is absolutely impeccable. He could make a play for the win.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Louie Anderson,Baskets
Andre Braugher,Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Keegan-Michael Key,Key & Peele
Ty Burrell,Modern Family
Tituss Burgess,Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Tony Hale,Veep
Matt Walsh,Veep
Who Should Win:Louie Anderson,Baskets
Who Will Win:Tony Hale,Veep
Dark Horse:Tituss Burgess,Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
One of the things that makes my job predicting the awards this year so difficult is that Emmy voters actually got so much right with the nominations. Tony HaleandMatt Walsh forVeep? I couldn’t dare to dream. But the one that really blows me away is Anderson forBaskets,in a role that elevated an otherwise mediocre series. Anderson is absolutely incredible playing a woman in a way that somehow perfectly captures the character of an overweight suburban mom.Anderson spoke to NPR’s Terry Grossabout channeling his mother in the role, and that sincerity and depth that he brings to it keeps it from being a one-note gag to something truly wonderful. And the fact that Emmy votersnoticedit is even more astonishing.
But if we’re talking about a single character who defines a series (who isn’t the lead), we have to talk about Burgess, who uses his entire being to convey his comedy with an incredibly unique delivery, all for an uproarious effect that also has a surprising amount of soul. Anderson is a long-shot — those the voters like a transformation, this one feels a little too avant garde — but if Burgess or either of theVeepfellows win in his place I’ll still be appeased.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Niecy Nash,Getting On
Allison Janney,Mom
Kate McKinnon,Saturday Night Live
Judith Light,Transparent
Gabby Hoffman,Transparent
Anna Chlumsky,Veep
Who Should Win:Judith Light,Transparent
Who Will Win:Allison Janney,Mom
Dark Horse:Anna Chlumsky,Veep
If I had to pick my favorite performance in this category, it would be Hoffman inTransparent. The problem is, I would honestly categorize it as an outstanding dramatic turn, not comedic. Light is funny —veryfunny — inTransparent, but if Emmy voters stick with what they know, it’ll go to Janney forMomagain (she’s won 7, 2 forMom, and been nominated for 12 throughout the years). Chlumsky has rarely gotten her due as part of theVeepcast, but I’m also hoping that this might be her year.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Master of None
Modern Family
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Who Should Win:Veep
Who Will Win:Veep
Dark Horse:Black-ish
Veepis such a clear front-runner in this category this year that it’s hard to think who might come up and take the trophy from them.Master of Nonefeels a little too much of a fringe pick for Emmy voters, and the others series didn’t have what were necessarily their best seasons. There’s a case to be made forUnbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, which I do think came back possibly even stronger in Season 2 (those females are strong as hell!), butBlack-ishalso went in hard on some tough, real-world issues that didn’t feel like an after-school special, which I think gives it the edge here.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Kirsten Dunst,Fargo
Felicity Huffman,American Crime
Sarah Paulson,The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Lily Taylor,American Crime
Kerry Washington,Confirmation
Audra McDonald,Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill
Who Should Win:Kirsten Dunst
Who Will Win:Sarah Paulson
Dark Horse:Felicity Huffman
If I had to pick one performance of the year that truly stood out for me among all series, it was Kirsten Dunst inFargo. Yes, Sarah Paulson was unbelievably affecting as Marcia Clark inThe People v. O.J., and it was an incredible role. But I’m sticking with Dunst for my personal pick. She was surprising, powerful, vulnerable, and transcendent. And yet, so was Paulson …
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Bryan Cranston,All the Way
Benedict Cumberbatch,Sherlock: The Abominable Bride
Idris Elba,Luther
Cuba Gooding Jr.,The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Tom Hiddleston,The Night Manager
Courtney B. Vance,The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Who Should Win:Courtney B. Vance
Who Will Win:Bryan Cranston
Dark Horse:Elba or Hiddleston
Awards voters love a transformation, and Cranston went through one to channel LBJ for HBO. He’s also won 6 individual Emmys, and the Emmy voters love to do the same thing year after year. But if you want a transformation, look at how Vance became Johnny Cochran forThe People v O.J.He was astonishing. And while I absolutely adore Hiddleston and Elba and think that they made both of their roles iconic, I don’t think this is their year. But just watch Cumberbatch come out of nowhere and win it all just to spite my predictions!
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Jesse Plemons,Fargo
Bokeem Woodbine,Fargo
Hugh Laurie,The Night Manager
John Travolta,The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Sterling K. Brown,The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
David Schwimmer,The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Who Should Win:Anyone but Travolta
Who Will Win:Sterling K. Brown
Dark Horse:Hugh Laurie
I’m not trying to be glib when I say “anyone but Travolta” should win, but this is an incredibly stacked category, and while what Travolta did with his character of Robert Shapiro was interesting, to my mind it’s not Emmy-worthy. Trying to pick a winner here is impossible. Hugh Laurie was so against type and so wonderfully, charmingly evil inThe Night Manager. But wait … Sterling K. Brown! Who brought such an amazing amount of warmth and conflict to his his character, and even a muted hint of romance. Then there’s Bokeem Woodbine! Ugh this is too hard. FX is essentially fighting itself in this category which could mean AMC will prevail with Laurie, even though the Sterling K. Brown buzz has been high.It’s tearing me apart Lisaaaaa!
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Melissa Leo,All the Way
Regina King,American Crime
Sarah Paulson,American Horror Story: Hotel
Kathy Bates,American Horror Story: Hotel
Jean Smart,Fargo
Olivia Colman,The Night Manager
Who Should Win:Anyone
Who Will Win:Jean Smart
Dark Horse:Melissa Leo
What a damn fine category of actresses. While I tend to naturally gravitate towards Sarah Paulson in anything, and Kathy Bates is a constant nominee (and sometimes winner), I think that Emmy voters will give it to Jean Smart forFargo. All of the women in this category had outstanding turns, though, particularly Regina King’s affecting performance inAmerican Crime, and Olivia Colman’s scene-stealing role inThe Night Manager(in fact, if I had to choose one scene that should alone deserve the Emmy it’s Colman describing why Richard Roper is the worst man in the world). Still, the Emmy could go to Melissa Leo, who represents the lone TV movie nomination in the bunch, and it feels like it could sneak in to be an upset (even though she is also always great).
Outstanding Limited Series
American Crime
The Night Manager
The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Who Should Win:The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Who Will Win:The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Dark Horse:The Night Manager
This one is pretty impossible. But even if you didn’t loveThe People v O.J., you have to respect what it did in its season, both in terms of its truly episodic format and outstanding acting.Fargohad an immensely interesting story this year, far better than Season 1 (and people who loved Season 1 didn’t care as much for Season 2, I know, I know). But then there were the aliens and the excessive violence and forever monologues that — in such an incredibly tight year — feels like pushed it slightly out of the top spot. It’s why I’m also pickingThe Night Manageras the dark horse overFargo, because with both had a wonderful cast and aesthetic,The Night Manager’s narrative consistency edges it out. Plus Emmy voters love British things.
Outstanding Movie Made for Television
A Very Murray Christmas
All the Way
Confirmation
Sherlock: The Abominable Bride
Who Should Win:Luther
Who Will Win:All the Way
Dark Horse:Confirmation
This category is a little bit of a mess, because of courseLutherandSherlockare also series. I don’t think thatThe Abominable Bridewas anywhere nearSherlock’s best, but for pure entertainment value and a fitting conclusion to a difficult story (and for the love of Idris Elba!), I would give the Emmy toLuther. It will definitelynotgo toLuther, so I’m instead betting on an HBO drama to take home the tin.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes,Homeland
Viola Davis,How to Get Away with Murder
Taraji P. Henson,Empire
Tatiana Maslany,Orphan Black
Keri Russell,The Americans
Robin Wright,House of Cards
Who Should Win:Keri Russell,The Americans
Who Will Win:Keri Russell,The Americans
Dark Horse:Robin Wright,House of Cards
I might be fooling myself, but I really think Keri Russell has a chance this year to finally get recognized by the Emmys for her exceptional work onThe Americans, especially in a year where her character, Elizabeth, finally showed a vulnerability that we’ve never seen (she should also win just for the forehead vein that pops out when she’s angry). The other women all have a chance — Davis does what she can with terrible material, and the same is true for Taraji P. Henson. Maslany used to be a lock for me, but now that we’ve finally gotten her nominated,Orphan Blackisn’t turning in its best work (even though she’s still supremely talented). Danes is always a strong possibility, but I think Wright could take the trophy. Still, I’m hoping hopinghopingit’s Russell.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Kyle Chandler,Bloodline
Rami Malek,Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk,Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys,The Americans
Liev Schreiber,Ray Donovan
Kevin Spacey,House of Cards
Who Should Win:Rami Malek,Mr. Robot
Who Will Win:Rami Malek,Mr. Robot
Dark Horse:Matthew Rhys,The Americans
An important thing to remember with Emmy voting is which episodes and seasons a show is being considered for. Though the women ofMr. Robothad a breakout season this year, Malek was absolutely outstanding in Season 1, and I think that buzz will carry over and get him the award. Having said that, I want so badly for Rhys to win just for being overlooked for so many years forThe Americans, especially in Season 3 when he had his best year yet. Then there’s Odenkirk, who carries the weight of his series almost entirely on his shoulders, and puts in one of the most carefully crafted performances on television, one that is both sly and deeply affecting. There can be no “upsets” in this category, each actor brings something great to their show, but I really do think this is pretty locked up for Malek.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks,Better Call Saul
Ben Mendelsohn,Bloodline
Peter Dinklage,Game of Thrones
Kit Harington,Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly,House of Cards
Jon Voight,Ray Donovan
Who Should Win:Jonathan Banks,Better Call Saul
Who Will Win:Jonathan Banks,Better Call Saul
Dark Horse:Jon Voight,Ray Donovan
It physically pains me to not vote for my dearest Ben Mendelsohn, who I think was unabashedly the greatest thing aboutBloodlineSeason 1. Bringing him back in Season 2 was an idea, but not one that allowed him to show off his immense talents the way he deserved to. Voight is always amazing, as is Dinklage, but guys — this is a no-brainer. Banks absolutely ruled his time onBetter Call Saulthis season, and Emmy voters like to honor older actors whenever they can. While I felt that Banks was great in Season 1, the material didn’t connect as well as it did in Season 2, where he delivered a series of wonderfully devastating episodes in a performance that was always nuanced in its principled stoicism.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Dame Maggie Smith,Downton Abbey
Lena Heady,Game of Thrones
Emilia Clarke,Game of Thrones
Maisie Williams,Game of Thrones
Maura Tierney,The Affair
Constance Zimmer,UnREAL
Who Should Win:Rhea Seehorn,Better Call Saul, who was not nominated.
Who Will Win:Dame Maggie Smith,Downton Abbey
Dark Horse:Constance Zimmer,UnREAL
I think we can all agree that as lovely a diversion asDownton Abbeyhas been throughout its run, it hasn’t really been good in a long time. But this seems to be the last chance to give Maggie Smith another Emmy, and I can’t fault voters too much if they decide to go that route. While I don’t think Zimmer really has a chance to win, her acid-tongued delivery onUnREALthat clearly masked real emotion was something to come back for week after week (even this year as the wheels started to fall off).Game of Thronesmay dominate this category, but I’m not altogether sure I see a win there except possibly for Williams, who did a lot with very uneven material.
Outstanding Drama Series
The Americans
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Who Should Win:The Americans
Who Will Win:Mr. Robot
Dark Horse:Game of Thrones
The Americansis the best show on television right now, and I say that without reservation. Even thoughMr. Robot’s first season changed the game (and was my top pick for 2015’s drama series),The Americans’ fourth season fired on all cylinders all season in a way that shows that deep into their run rarely do, and in a way that is unique and unpredictable (something that can’t exactly be said forRobot, as great as it is).Downton Abbeytried to tun the ship around a little in its last season, but it wasn’t enough, and the same is true forHomeland. ButGame of Throneshad a crowd-pleasing run that could sway some voters, especially with its overarching themes of female empowerment, and its (surprisingly) explosive and satisfying final episodes.
