Aside fromThe Martian, the major releases of the past month led to amostly unexciting October. Paramount made the surprising decision to releaseParanormal Activity: The Ghost Dimensionon VOD only 17 days after dropping below 300 theaters, causing many major theater chains to pull out of releasing the film, which will lead to a series-low gross for the franchise.Crimson Peak,Our Brand Is Crisis, andSteve Jobsall performed below expectations, despite the fact thatSteve Jobsfound huge success in its limited release. Despite major stars headlining many of these films (Tom Hanks,Sandra Bullock,Bradley Cooper), this past month will end up well below the record-breaking October of 2014.
Fortunately, November looks as though it will reverse this trend with the release of box office juggernautsSpectre,The Good Dinosaur, andThe Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2. November of 2014 had somewhat disappointing grosses totaling $965 million, falling well short ofNovember 2012’s record of $1.09 billion, which saw the releases ofSkyfallandThe Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2. IfThe Peanuts MovieandThe Night Beforeover-perform, this upcoming month has a good chance of beating 2012’s record.
Spectre (Sony – November 6)
Aside fromThe Hunger GamesandStar Wars,Spectreis arguably the most anticipated film of the holiday season. Almost exactly three years ago,Skyfallset a new benchmark for the Bond franchise, grossing $304.3 million domestically and $1.1 billion worldwide.
The critical and commercial love forSkyfallhas set expectations incredibly high, and early reviews indicate thatSpectrecomes close to living up to them (although it’s currently at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes). There has been much speculation as to whether this isDaniel Craig’s last Bond film, particularly with Craig’s recent comments that he would rather slit his wrists than play the character again. While Sony would likely prefer that their lead actor not publicly choose death over playing the role again, these comments have likely only increased the need to see the film, as it may be Craig’s final outing.
The massive box office improvement ofSkyfalloverQuantum of Solacein many ways felt reminiscent ofThe Dark Knight’sincrease overBatman Begins. Four years later,The Dark Knight Riseswent on to gross $448.1 million, or 83.8% ofThe Dark Knight’s$534.8 million. IfSpectrewere to follow suit, it would gross $253.9 million. That kind of drop seems steep, butSpectrewill likely fall short ofSkyfall, to some degree.
The Peanuts Movie (Fox – November 6)
The Peanuts Moviearrives fifteen years after the last original Peanuts strip was written and the death of creatorCharles M. Schulz. While this may cause concern for the quality of this film, the good news is Schulz’s son (Craig Schulz) and grandson (Brian Schulz) serve as producers and writers, and the trailers have done a good job at making it clear that the spirit and style of the comic strip have transferred over to the big screen.
Box office wise, this film does face a few hurdles. While older audiences will likely be drawn in by nostalgia, a large portion of the younger population may not have grown up withPeanuts. In addition, younger audiences have grown accustomed to the ultra sharp and refined animation from Pixar and Illumination, and may be put off by the arguably less impressive visual style here.
The studio has wisely timed the film around the 65thanniversary of the comic strip and the 50thanniversary of the TV specialA Charlie Brown Christmas, which should help build up the hype.The Peanuts Moviewill also have family audiences to itself for a few weeks beforeThe Good Dinosaurarrives, which should help it reach the box office heights of past Blue Sky hitsHorton Hears A Who!andRio, if not higher.
The 33 (Warner Bros. – November 13)
The 33is based on the 2010 mining disaster in which thirty-three miners were trapped inside the San Jose Mine in Chile for over two months. While the incident was heavily publicized and is an undeniably appealing story for a film,The 33does not look to break out in any significant way.
Most successful films based on true stories are ones in which the incident took place in or around the United States. There are some exceptions to this rule (Titanic, Life Is Beautiful) but they are typically awards contenders, and given its current 44% rating on Rotten Tomatoes,The 33does seem to fit into this category.
In addition, while the cast is filled with talented and recognizable actors (Antonio Banderas,Rodrigo Santoro), they do not possess much in the way of box office drawing power. Look forThe 33to end up closer to other true story domestic box office disappointmentsPompeiiandThe Impossible.
Love The Coopers (November 13 – CBS Films)
Family comedies released around fall/winter have in many cases have been very successful, such asMeet The ParentsorThe Family Stone. However, a big part of what made these comedies so successful was the “hook” for audiences: watching the main character having trouble fitting in with a potential spouse’s family.Love The Cooperslacks any kind of similar hook, and aside from the cast (Ed Helms,Diane Keaton,Amanda Seyfried, among others), there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot here to make it stand out among the crowd.
While the cast is recognizable,Love The Cooperslacks a major star to help appeal to larger audiences. Another concern here is that we’re two weeks away from its release and we’ve seen virtually nothing in the way of publicity or marketing for this film, which is normally a sign of the studio’s lack of confidence in its product. Look for this to end up on the lower end of Christmas-themed films.
My All American (November 13 – Clarius Entertainment)
A late addition to the November calendar,My All Americanis based on the life of college football standout Freddie Steinmark and his biographyCourage Beyond The Game: The Freddie Steinmark Story. Unfortunately, there’s not much here that makes it stand out from other underdog sports dramas.
Sports dramas typically gain traction by being based on a widely known true story or book (42,Friday Nights Lights) or having a huge star (Invincible), neither of whichMy All Americanhas going for it. Though the studio has been marketing the film quite a bit online, this seems likely to end up on the lower end of football dramas, right around 2008’sThe Express($9.7 million).
The Night Before (November 20 – Sony/Columbia)
The Night Beforemarks the second collaboration between directorJonathan Levineand starsJoseph Gordon-LevittandSeth Rogen. Although50/50was not a huge box office smash, it was extremely well received by critics and audiences and showcased the chemistry between Rogen and Gordon-Levitt. That film also managed to perform well despite the plot centering on the main character battling cancer, and this time around, three friends reuniting for a night of debauchery is lighter and has the potential to appeal to a much broader audience.
Anthony Mackie, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Seth Rogen make for an appealing ensemble, and they have strong support fromLizzy CaplanandMindy Kaling. The film will also have comedy audiences to itself untilSistersarrives nearly a month later. Given its holiday setting and the talent involved, this should end up right around fellow Rogen drug-induced comedyPineapple Express, especially if the film ends up being as good as the red-band trailer.
Secret In Their Eyes (November 20 – STX Entertainment)
Newcomer distributor STX Entertainment had a surprise hit on their hands with August’sThe Gift, grossing $43.7 million on a $5 million budget. It remains to be seen whetherSecret In Their Eyeswill follow suit, but the film has several factors that suggest it may continue the upward trend.
Based on the 2009 Spanish language film of the same name,Secret In Their Eyesfeatures a hugely talented cast (Julia Roberts, Chiewetel Ejiofor, andNicole Kidman) and an exciting premise and hook: a vigilante murder mystery spanning nearly thirteen years. Films dealing with a bystander seeking vengeance after a family member’s murder have a mixed track record at the box office. WhileLaw Abiding Citizenproved to be successful ($73.3 million),Death Sentenceflopped ($9.5 million).
Secret In Their Eyesdoes face some competition in late November from dramas such asCreedandVictor Frankenstein, but it should fare well among adult audiences seeking a thriller. This should end up right around directorBilly Ray’sprevious effortBreach($33.2 million) and fellow star-studded crime dramaState of Play($37.0 million).
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (November 20 – Lionsgate)
Since the first film’s debut in 2012,The Hunger Gameshas become one of the most popular franchises in the world and put Lionsgate on the map as a major player among the big six studios. AfterCatching Fireimproved upon the first installment in both the domestic and international markets, many predicted that its sequel,Mockingjay – Part 1, would continue the franchise’s momentum and possibly even join the billion-dollar club. However, the film grossed a somewhat disappointing $337.1 million, or roughly 80% of its predecessor’s $424.6 million.
While this figure cast some doubt about the popularity of the franchise, the lower gross can be largely chalked up to the decision to split the film in half, which likely turned off many audience members. In addition, because those that read the book series were aware that the battle against the Capital and President Snow takes place in the second half of the novel, many moviegoers likely decided to save their money and wait for the final chapter.
Trailers for the film have done a good job at articulating that this is in fact the end of theHunger Gamesseries and will feature the climactic battle fans have been waiting for, a strategy that worked extremely well forHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2.Deathly Hallows – Part 2improved upon its predecessor by 28%. A 28% improvement overMockingjay – Part 1would put the final film on track for $431.5 million. This figure may be a little high, but given the lack of strong competition for action/adventure audiences untilStar Warsarrives on December 18th, it should be able to return to the $400 million club the first two installments belong to.
The Good Dinosaur (November 25 – Disney)
SinceToy Storywas released in 1995, Pixar has been consistently delivering high quality films that have performed incredibly well at the box office. This is the first time in the history of the studio that it has released two films in the same year, and it seems very likely that the momentum created byInside Outwill carryThe Good Dinosaurto similar box office heights.
The premise of what the world would look like if dinosaurs still existed is undeniably intriguing, and the visuals look like some of Pixar’s best. Also, if anyone out there doubted the popularity of dinosaurs in cinema, they would have to look no further than the year’s highest grossing film of the year (so far),Jurassic World.
It also doesn’t hurt that the film is being released on the same weekend asFrozentwo years ago, and has family audiences entirely to itself untilStar Warsarrives four weeks later. WhileFrozen’sgross might be out of reach, a figure close to that ofInside Outseems doable.
Creed (November 25 – Warner Bros.)
In an era where this industry is dominated by films based on existing properties,Creedis one of the more bizarre spinoff ideas in recent memory. However, the product that came out of said idea actually looks appealing.Michael B. Jordan, playing the son of Apollo Creed, is very convincing as a boxer trying to fight his way to the top. The trailers have been well received and it helps that Jordan has seen his profile rise significantly in recent years thanks toFruitvale StationandThat Awkward Moment.
It’s also an interesting (and refreshing) choice to haveSylvester Stallone, reprising arguably the most popular role of his career, take a backseat in the trailers to Jordan. This may be because the filmmakers want to make it clear that the film is predominantly about Jordan’s character, and they may also have realized that Stallone’s drawing power has waned significantly in recent years.
Though a Thanksgiving release date seems like a good spot for this type of film,Creedfaces a tough battle for family audiences againstThe Good Dinosaur. In addition, outside of the earlyRockyinstallments, boxing films tend to have a low ceiling at the box office. However, if the film turns out to be good, it could end up having strong legs and perform in line with this summer’sSouthpaw.
