Avatar: The Way of Watermay be the most buzzed-about film remaining on 2022’s calendar, and is easily one of the most highly anticipated features in years. However, whilethe sequel to 2009’sAvatarwill likely draw massive crowds, experts predict that it may not bring in the box office figures that the original film did.
According to financial predictions published byVariety,Avatar: The Way of Wateris forecasted to generate around $649 million at the domestic box office. Additional formats will help the film to bring in even more cash, as the project is estimated to earn $425 million and $214 million from video-on-demand and streaming platforms, respectively. Just looking at the box office totals, $649 million is certainly nothing to gawk at, as it puts directorJames Cameron’slong-awaited sequel in a position to make a large profit, given that the film’s budget was estimated to be around $250 million. However, if this box office prediction is close to accurate, then the film will still come up significantly short of its predecessor, as the originalAvatarearned $772 million during its theatrical run.
However, asking any film - even a direct sequel - to measure up toAvataris a tall task, as Cameron’s sci-fi blockbuster broke numerous box office records upon its release. The film soared past the competition, earning $760 million domestically and shattering the worldwide box office, bringing in a global total of $2.79 billion - makingAvatarthe highest grossing film of all time. It would hold that record for a decade before bowing toAvengers: Endgamein 2019. However, atheatrical re-release in Chinain 2021 balloonedAvatar’sglobal total to $2.85 billion, which passedEndgameand gaveAvatarthe top spot once again. The film is now generating even more cash followinganother recent theatrical re-releasein anticipation of the sequel. It is unlikely thatAvatar: The Way of Waterwill come anywhere near these records, especially given that its predicted $649 million would still be below 2022’s highest-grossing film,Top Gun: Maverick,which hasraked in over $700 milliondomestically.
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Cameron’s sequel may be helped, though, by a number of factors, Variety noted. This includes the fact that the film, like the original, is releasing at the height of the holiday filmgoing season, which typically draws crowds to large blockbusters released at this time. However, this year, there is not a ton of competition, asAvatar: The Way of Waterreally only has two major releases to face off against: DC Films’Black Adamand the MCU juggernautBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever- which, given that they will both be released in the months prior toAvatar: The Way of Water,are unlikely to have a major affect. While both of these films are also forecasted to do well - expected to generate $328 million and $423 million, respectively - neither of these figures would get close toAvatar: The Way of Water,which, if all goes as predicted, would take the end of the year crown.
The film is being distributed by 20th Century Studios who, along with parent company Disney, have begun a heavy marketing push for the feature. However, it seems that cinema analysts think that, even with the anticipation for the sequel and a decade-long wait,Avatar: The Way of Waterwill not be knocking on the original film’s door.
Avatar: The Way of Waterwill be released in theaters on Dec. 16. Check out Collider’s interview with James Cameron about another one of his projects below:
