Welcome toFor Your Consideration, the Collider show that breaks down awards season with hostsScott Mantz,Perri NemiroffandJeff Sneider, who offer their Best Picture predictions this week. With no clear frontrunner in sight, the category is especially competitive this year, so let’s dive into this wide-open race.
TheFYChosts believe that three films have separated themselves from the rest of the pack thus far –Alfonso Cuarón’sRoma,Peter Farrelly’sGreen BookandBradley Cooper’sA Star Is Born. All three are clearly among the finest films of the year, but each has obstacles they’ll have to overcome.Romais a black-and-white foreign language film that most people will watch on Netflix. The hosts agree that it’s a beautiful work of art, but while Cuarón does an incredible job of capturing a specific time and a place, the story may lack the emotional resonance that we’ve come to expect from a Best Picture winner, and it doesn’t boast any movie stars. Meanwhile,A Star Is Bornis the fourth version of this time-worn tale and it hails from a first-time director who isn’t exactly an Academy darling, whileGreen Bookis drawing comparisons to old-fashioned Oscar winnerDriving Miss Daisy, which may not do it any favors in the long run. We’ll see if audiences flock toRomaandGreen Bookthe way they didA Star Is Born.
The next three strongest contenders appear to beIf Beale Street Could Talkfrom Oscar winnerBarry Jenkins; the darkly humorous period pieceThe FavouritefromYorgos Lanthimos; and theDick CheneymovieVicefromAdam McKay. Jenkins won an Oscar forMoonlight, and both Lanthimos and McKay are former screenwriting nominees, so there’s real pedigree behind each of these three films. But is Hollywood willing to embrace a movie about a pro-war Republican like Cheney? WillBeale Streetstruggle to live up to the inevitableMoonlightcomparisons? Will the Academy’s male-heavy demo go for the female-dominatedThe Favourite, which in Jeff’s mind, starts slow but gets better as it gets darker in its second half? It’s difficult for theFYChosts to see any of those three films winning Best Picture, but if they can manage their way into the race then it’s anyone’s guess.
Elsewhere, Scott and Perri are high onSpike Lee’sBlacKkKlansman, but Jeff feels much more confident inBlack Panther’s Best Picture chances, asRyan Coogler’s Marvel movie transcended its superhero genre to become a legitimate cultural phenomenon. Sleep on that film at your own risk, especially with a big-budget campaign from Disney on the horizon. Universal will no doubt mount its own deep-pocketed campaign forDamien Chazelle’sNeil ArmstrongdramaFirst Man, which Scott still feels has a solid chance, but Jeff is betting that a crowdpleaser likeCrazy Rich Asianscould fare better if the Academy goes for escapism this year. For that reason, it may be too early to write off Disney’sMary Poppins Returns, which is gaining Oscar buzz for its songs andEmily Blunt’s magical performance.
The panel also thinks thatMarielle Heller’sCan You Ever Forgive Me?could slip into the Best Picture race on the strength of its two stars,Melissa McCarthyandRichard E. Grant, both of whom are expected to secure acting nominations. Of course, acting nominations hardly indicate Best Picture support. Just look atSteve McQueen’sWidows, which has struggled to gain traction in the race even though pundits are high onViola Davis' performance. The same can be said ofBohemian Rhapsody, which features a dynamite turn fromRami Malek, yet appears to be a long-shot for a Best Picture nomination, especially given its critical dismissal. But hey, critics don’t vote for the Oscars, so you never know.
Finally, Focus hasJoel Edgerton’s moving gay conversion therapy dramaBoy Erasedin the mix, A24 will be pushingBo Burnham’s poignant high school dramedyEighth Grade, and Paramount is hoping thatJohn Krasinski’sA Quiet Placewill make noise this awards season. That’s a lot of competition but it’s early days, so outside of those three frontrunners being nominated, almost anything could happen.
In the end, after much discussion, Scott, Perri and Jeff come to a compromise regarding their predictions, so tune in to see where they settled. To keep up with all thingsFor Your Consideration, follow the gang on Twitter and Instagram at @MovieMantz, @PNemiroffand @TheInSneider. Stay tuned next week for more awards talk, have a Happy Thanksgiving, and we’llFYC-ya later!
